With the increasing awareness of climate change, food carbon footprint (CF) has been analysed by many studies. Wheat is one of the world’s most favoured food sources, reaching millions of people on a daily basis. In this study, the wheat CF and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were investigated using national statistical data for the period of 2003-2016. There is an interactive correlation between the wheat CF value and yield, and wheat CF could be reduced by increasing food yield. In addition, the results showed that the changes in product CF values of the crop during 14 y were minor. However, due to the increase of total national yield, the GHG emissions from wheat production were increased significantly. On the other hand, the product CF, GDP (gross domestic product) CF, and total GHG emissions from wheat production from 2017 to 2021 were predicted by grey system. From the viewpoint of GDP CF, Chinese agricultural sector has completed the 2020 emission reduction targets. However, the total GHG emissions from wheat production were increased largely. It indicated that reducing food consumption and dietary shift to the food with low CF should be paid more attention to mitigate climate change.