This paper investigates the capability of thermodynamic equilibrium approach to simulate fast pyrolysis of sugarcane bagasse in Aspen PlusTM. The Gibbs energy minimization reactor was used to evaluate the effect of temperature (523–773 K), pressure (1–5 atm), and moisture content (10–25 wt%) on pyrolysis products distribution, using a 23 central composite design (sensitivity analysis). High temperature (500 °C) and low pressure (1 atm) produced the highest yield of gases (~70 %) while low temperature (250 °C) and high pressure (5 atm) achieved the highest liquid yields (~53 %), and moisture content demonstrated little influence for both products because the reactor was held isothermal. However, for gases production, high moisture content (25 %) can be combined either with higher temperatures to promote CO production or higher pressure for CO2 production. The results suggested that the temperature was the only significant parameter for pyrolysis products distribution for 95 % confidence level, and the equilibrium approach predicted gas yields more efficiently than liquid yields.