Abstract
This study employs an interregional input-output model to assess the regional and sectoral socioeconomic impacts of a projected 39 % increase in biofuel demand in Brazil over the next decade. The analysis also examines how digital transformation in agriculture may condition these impacts through a sensitivity analysis that jointly evaluates operational improvements and value-chain efficiency gains. In 2022, Brazil’s biofuel manufacturing sector reached a Gross Value of Output of USD 15.3 billion, with São Paulo (SP) and Mato Grosso (MT) accounting for 46 % of the total. Approximately 70 % of production inputs were sourced within these states, underscoring the sector’s role in supporting local supply chains and regional employment. The projected expansion in biofuel demand indicates increases of USD 13.79 billion in national output, USD 4.32 billion in value added, USD 1.98 billion in wages, and 165 thousand jobs. SP exhibits stronger indirect effects due to dense intersectoral linkages, while MT shows weaker multiplier transmission despite rapid corn-ethanol expansion. Digital transformation has the potential to reshape multiplier effects, modify resource allocation, and stimulate broader economic benefits. Under an optimistic scenario, Brazil’s aggregate intermediate consumption increases by 3.38 % (equivalent to USD 50 billion), with the biofuel manufacturing sector expected to capture USD 438 million of this growth. This sector benefits from efficiency gains associated with digital transformation in agriculture, particularly when a coordinated value-chain approach is adopted.
