Abstract
This study examines greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Thailand’s paper sector using Input–Output Analysis (IOA) together with Structural Path Analysis (SPA). The assessment draws on Thailand’s 2015 national input–output table, fossil fuel consumption records, official emission factors from the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO, 2022), and production statistics reported by the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE, 2021). The findings indicate that direct emissions from paper manufacturing are relatively modest, while embodied emissions reveal strong dependencies on upstream sectors, particularly the public utilities and transportation sectors. The revised assessment distinguishes between direct and indirect emission intensities within the IOA–SPA framework. Direct emission intensity was normalized using total paper product output, whereas indirect embodied emission intensity was evaluated using pulp production as a proxy material-flow reference for upstream supply-chain dependencies. The resulting fossil fuel combustion–related GHG emission intensity indicators showed reasonable consistency with weighted national benchmarks derived from official TGO emission factors for paper products, supporting the applicability of the IOA–SPA framework under Thailand’s current data constraints. The framework provides a practical basis for evidence-based policymaking, sectoral decarbonization strategies, and Thailand’s transition toward net-zero emissions.
