The modern way of life places considerable demands on energy and material resources. The limited amount of primary resources and the burden on the environment have supported the circular economy's tendencies which has EU recently incorporated into its legislation as Circular Economy Package. The aim of this package is to turn waste into material or energy source. The waste treatment methods are also regulated in EU legislation through recycling and landfilling targets. Estimation of future waste production and treatment is a fundamental prerequisite for adjustments in waste management. The aim of this paper is to model the municipal solid waste production and treatment at a national level for the EU member states. The principles of linear regression were used to reveal the relationship between waste management data (waste streams production and treatment) and 19 socio-economic, demographic and other factors. Among the EU states, the resulting models explain at least 66 % of the variability in waste streams production and 52 % in case of waste treatment methods. The most influential variables are GDP, income and educational level of inhabitants. The results of these analyses could be used for forecasting production and waste treatment on the state level and can indicate the gaps between probable development and waste management targets set by the EU. The accuracy and comparability of waste production data across the EU should be further analysed.