Evaluation of the Carbon Emissions of Electric Vehicles in the Philippines Considering Local Power Mix

Abstract

The transport sector remains a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions with a 21.7 % share of global emissions. In the Philippines, vehicle electrification is seen to curb transportation emissions since these vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions. However, considering only tailpipe emissions is misleading since fossil fuels dominate the local electricity mix at greater than 60 % market share. Additionally, commercially available electric vehicles in the country are not tested or simulated in Philippine routes, especially for routes with moderate to high grades of 8 % or more. The study simulated the performance of electric vehicles by varying road grades in a vehicle and a test model. The consumption from the simulation was used to forecast business-as-usual and clean energy scenarios to analyse the impact of EVs on emissions, while also looking into more environmentally informed pathways for EV adoption by matching CO₂ emission targets and vehicle/fleet replacement. Results show a net reduction in emissions with increased adoption of electric vehicles. The findings indicate that EV adoption alone yields minimal national carbon emission reductions, with a maximum decrease of 1.131 Mt CO2 (less than 1 % of national transport emissions) by 2040 under high adoption but unchanged power mix scenarios. Emission reduction is better achieved through investment in renewable energy technologies, which leads to about a 50 % reduction in carbon emissions.