Abstract
Since Trump took office, the US government has introduced new tariff policies, leading to the outbreak of the Sino-US tariff issue. This paper studies the impact of drastic changes in tariffs on China's carbon trading market under the background of the Sino-US trade war. This paper aims to explore how tariff changes affect the carbon price in China's carbon trading market by affecting economic indicators such as the stock market, gold prices, and exchange rates. By constructing a regression model, this paper analyzes the impact of the S&P 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, gold futures prices, and the US dollar-RMB exchange rate on the carbon price in China's carbon trading market during the adjustment of the US tariff policy on China in 2025. The regression results show that the exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index have a positive impact on the price, and the gold price and the S&P 500 have a negative correlation with the price. Stock market fluctuations and changes in gold prices have little impact on carbon prices, and exchange rate fluctuations will have a relatively large impact on carbon prices. It is proposed that in order to promote the healthy development of the carbon trading market, it is recommended that the government strengthen the monitoring and supervision of the exchange rate market and promote the adjustment of the energy structure. At the same time, the carbon trading market mechanism should be improved, the market transparency and fairness should be improved, the investment threshold should be lowered, and more investors should be attracted to participate. It also suggests that the mutual impact between the carbon trading market and other investment markets in the future deserves continued attention and in-depth research.
