Abstract
Ammonia is emerging as a promising carbon-free marine fuel and a prominent candidate as effective and low-cost hydrogen carrier due to its high hydrogen content (17.65 %). NH3 adoption introduces new safety challenges due to its high toxicity, corrosiveness, and complex behaviour under dynamic operational conditions. This paper presents a dynamic barrier failure analysis for an ammonia bunker vessel and associated bunkering operations, integrating temporal risk evolution with the performance of technical and organizational safety barriers. A hybrid-modelling framework, combining process-dynamic simulations, event-sequence modelling, and Bayesian inference, is developed to characterize how deviations, equipment malfunctions, human actions, organizational failure, and environmental perturbations propagate through the system over time. Preliminary results highlight a set of high-leverage precursor conditions, which significantly increase the likelihood of cascading barrier impairment.
